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In a rare and ominous warning, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), chaired by NASA, has alerted the world to a potentially catastrophic asteroid, 2024 YR4. This near-Earth asteroid, discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, poses a 1.3% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. However, some estimates suggest this risk could be as high as 6%.
The Asteroid's Profile
Size and Type: 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 100 and 300 feet wide, making it comparable in height to the Statue of Liberty. It is classified as an Apollo-type asteroid, meaning its orbit crosses Earth's path around the Sun.
Orbital Period: The asteroid orbits the Sun every four years, which places it in a category of asteroids that astronomers closely monitor due to their potential for Earth impact.
Impact Risk and Consequences
The potential impact of 2024 YR4 is significant. If it were to collide with Earth, the effects could be devastating. According to John Tonry, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii, the blast could be equivalent to a 10-megaton bomb, incinerating everything within a few kilometers and causing severe damage up to 50 km from the impact site. The risk corridor spans across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
Mitigation and Monitoring
Despite the low probability of impact, the asteroid's size and trajectory have activated two UN-endorsed asteroid reaction groups: IAWN and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). These organizations are working to refine the asteroid's orbit and assess the threat more accurately. However, due to its distance, deep space radar observations won't be possible until 2032, making it crucial to gather more data before then.
Comparison with Asteroid Apophis
2024 YR4 is only the second asteroid with an impact risk exceeding 1%, the other being asteroid 99942 Apophis. Apophis, about 1,200 feet wide, is classified as a "city killer" and will pass close to Earth in 2029. Although its collision risk was initially ruled out, recent simulations suggest a slight chance its trajectory could be altered by a small asteroid collision.
Conclusion
While the likelihood of an impact remains low, with a nearly 99% chance that 2024 YR4 will safely pass Earth, the situation underscores the importance of continued monitoring and preparedness. Astronomers are racing against time to gather more data, as the asteroid will be observable from Earth only until April 2025 and then again in June 2028.
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Photo Image: ESA-Science Office
Jamie Carter, Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2025/02/02/a-deadly-asteroid-may-strike-earth-in-2032---what-to-know/